El Portal, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

884
FXUS66 KHNX 311800
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1100 AM PDT Sat May 31 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the San Joaquin Valley,
Kern River Valley, lower Sierra Foothills, and West Side Hills
valid from 11 AM Friday through 7 AM Sunday.

2. Widespread Moderate to Major Heat Risk is expected across
the lower elevations of the region.

3. A disturbance over the weekend will allow for the development
of strong winds over the mountains and across the Eastern Mojave
Slopes of the Kern County Mountains early next week.

4. Mountain thunderstorms are possible this weekend, with
a potential for widespread mountain storms on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Heat-wave has begun with triple digits expected across the San
Joaquin Valley and the Kern Desert. With the high pressure ridge
well in place over the West, confidence is high in reaching
triple digit heat this afternoon. Will expect conditions to
remain hot and mostly dry today as moisture surges northward
over the next few days. The moisture surge will allow for
increasing convection over the district and showers and
thunderstorms will spread across the area ahead of the next
disturbance on around Sunday. Dry and comfortable conditions
expected in the wake of the disturbance early next week before
the start of the next warming trend into the latter part of the
week.

Ensemble Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 100
degrees Today sits at 80% or above. 105 degrees will be more of
a challenge today as PoE of 50% sits around the Huron/Lemoore
area. Outside of that area todays PoE of 105 degrees has
percentages between 25% and 40% with the higher end percentages
on the west-side and south-end of the valley. Therefore, still
have good confidence that the heat advisory criteria will be met
on this afternoon.

Ensemble mean upper-air analysis is showing another disturbance
crossing the region as the heat-wave comes to an end on Sunday
and winds increase over the favored locations. While westerly
winds will increase on Sunday, PoE of wind gusts reaching 35 mph
is only 35%-40% over the favored locations. Outside of the
wind-prone areas, expect 15-25 mph wind gusts during disturbance
passage. While still a fire weather concern, the breezy winds
will help limit the heat and the northwesterly extension of the
moisture plume into the area. Will expect convection this
weekend over the Sierra Nevada as Probability of Thunder sits
around 20% and continue into Monday with Probability of Thunder
then at 30%. By Tuesday, the disturbance pushes further away
with diminishing dynamic and moisture to support convection.
Fire Weather is a concern, yet the precipitation during the
weekend will lessen the threat. Yet, a weak disturbance moving
through the area on Thursday does hint toward convection over
the Sierra Nevada that day.

Monday/Tuesday will be a transition period as temperatures
approach normal values and the region dries out. PoE will
struggle to reach 95 degrees early in the week, but, will get
more traction as a ridge builds back into the region later next
week. PoE finally reaches percentages of 40% to 70% on Friday,
with even high values on Saturday (60% to 80%) and increasing
the confidence of reaching the mid 90s range.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update:

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours across the
Central California Interior. A slight chance (15%) of afternoon
convection will exist across the Sierra Nevada from 20Z today to
03Z Sunday.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ300>321-324-332.
&&

$$

Public/Aviation....Molina

weather.gov/hanford